Cardinals at Brewers
Last play · Alec Burleson grounds out softly, pitcher Rob Zastryzny to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Brewers100%
STL 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 5 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Caleb Durbin scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd. Throwing error by right fielder Jordan Walker. (inning 3) — +17% Brewers
8Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.2–8
7Christian Yelich homers (28) on a fly ball to center field. Brice Turang scores.2–7
6Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Alec Burleson scores.2–5
6Alec Burleson triples (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Iván Herrera scores.1–5
4Jake Bauers doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lars Nootbaar. Isaac Collins scores.0–5
3Brice Turang reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Willson Contreras. Sal Frelick scores.0–4
3Jackson Chourio out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Caleb Durbin scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd. Throwing error by right fielder Jordan Walker.0–3
3Sal Frelick walks. Jake Bauers scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
