Royals at Phillies
Last play · Carter Jensen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
KC 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. (inning 3) — +23% Phillies
7Bryson Stott homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Weston Wilson scores.2–8
7Bobby Witt Jr. grounds out, first baseman Bryce Harper to pitcher Tim Mayza. Jac Caglianone scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.2–6
4Kyle Schwarber doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Harrison Bader scores.1–6
4Harrison Bader doubles (23) on a fly ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Rafael Marchán scores.1–5
3Otto Kemp singles on a ground ball to left fielder Adam Frazier. Brandon Marsh scores.1–4
3Bryce Harper homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Schwarber scores.1–3
2Rafael Marchán out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Otto Kemp scores. Max Kepler to 3rd.1–1
1Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
