Orioles at Blue Jays
BAL1–
TOR6Last play · Tyler O'Neill pops out to first baseman Ty France in foul territory.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Myles Straw doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. (inning 6) — +19% Blue Jays
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Daulton Varsho scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Colton Cowser to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.1–6
8Daulton Varsho doubles (11) on a ground ball to right fielder Jeremiah Jackson. Myles Straw scores. George Springer scores.1–5
7Ernie Clement singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. George Springer scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.1–3
6Myles Straw doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.1–2
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Colton Cowser.1–1
3Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Samuel Basallo scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.