Rays at Cubs
TB4–
CHC6Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
TB 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christopher Morel homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 1) — -28% Rays
4Ian Happ homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.4–6
4Nick Fortes singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jake Mangum scores.4–5
3Matt Shaw grounds into a force out, shortstop Carson Williams to second baseman Richie Palacios. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Willi Castro out at 2nd. Matt Shaw to 1st.3–5
3Moisés Ballesteros triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Nico Hoerner scores.3–4
2Ian Happ singles on a line drive to center fielder Everson Pereira. Willi Castro scores. Michael Busch to 3rd.3–3
2Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Mangum. Dansby Swanson scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.3–2
2Dansby Swanson doubles (21) on a ground ball to center fielder Everson Pereira, deflected by shortstop Carson Williams. Nico Hoerner scores.3–1
1Christopher Morel homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.