Rangers at Mets
Last play · Brandon Nimmo strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Mets0%
TEX 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wyatt Langford singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Dustin Harris scores. (inning 9) — -34% Rangers
9Wyatt Langford singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Dustin Harris scores.3–2
8Rowdy Tellez hits a ground-rule double (10) on a line drive down the right-field line. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.2–2
8Joc Pederson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jose Siri. Josh Smith scores.1–2
7Juan Soto homers (40) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
5Pete Alonso singles on a fly ball to second baseman Cody Freeman. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Cody Freeman.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
