Astros at Braves
Last play · Ozzie Albies grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Braves0%
HOU 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 6 – 1 ATL
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Meyers scores. Yainer Diaz scores. (inning 2) — -18% Astros
7Ha-Seong Kim singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.6–2
4Matt Olson homers (24) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
3Christian Walker homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Jesús Sánchez scores.6–0
3Jesús Sánchez grounds into a force out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Carlos Correa scores. Jose Altuve out at 2nd. Jesús Sánchez to 1st.4–0
2Jeremy Peña doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Meyers scores. Yainer Diaz scores.3–0
2Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Christian Walker scores. Jake Meyers to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
