Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Alex Bregman flies out to center fielder Trent Grisham.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
NYY 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 1 BOS
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham lines out to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. (inning 9) — -14% Yankees
9Cody Bellinger doubles (25) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Aaron Judge scores.5–3
8Jarren Duran homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.4–3
6Connor Wong singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Nate Eaton scores. Nick Sogard to 2nd.4–2
5Alex Bregman homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.3–0
1Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Brayan Bello. Ben Rice scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd.2–0
1Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
