Orioles at Blue Jays
BAL4–
TOR5Last play · Alejandro Kirk out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Joey Loperfido scores.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 1 TOR
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Ernie Clement scores. Joey Loperfido to 2nd. (inning 9) — +42% Blue Jays
9Alejandro Kirk out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Joey Loperfido scores.4–5
9Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Ernie Clement scores. Joey Loperfido to 2nd.4–4
9Joey Loperfido singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd.4–3
9Coby Mayo homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
8Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ernie Clement scores. George Springer to 3rd.3–2
8Samuel Basallo doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Gunnar Henderson scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd.3–1
5Addison Barger homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
1Tyler O'Neill grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Dylan Beavers scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.