Royals at Phillies
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
KC 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (51) on a line drive to right field. (inning 5) — +22% Phillies
8Carter Jensen singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jonathan India scores.6–8
7Brandon Marsh homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.5–8
7Vinnie Pasquantino out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Tyler Tolbert scores.5–7
6Kyle Schwarber singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Donovan Walton scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd.4–7
5Otto Kemp doubles (10) on a fly ball to left fielder Adam Frazier. J.T. Realmuto scores.4–6
5Nick Castellanos out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Bryce Harper scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.4–5
5Kyle Schwarber homers (51) on a line drive to right field.4–4
3J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Harrison Bader scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
