Rockies at Padres
Last play · Tyler Freeman flies out to right fielder Bryce Johnson.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 9 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+240 / -300
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Cronenworth scores. (inning 2) — +20% Padres
8Bryce Johnson homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Elias Díaz scores.3–11
8Blaine Crim doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Tyler Freeman scores. Jordan Beck scores.3–9
4Ramón Laureano doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado scores.1–9
4Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jordan Beck. Elias Díaz scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.1–7
3Jackson Merrill homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.1–5
3Manny Machado homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
2Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Cronenworth scores.1–3
1Ramón Laureano out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mickey Moniak. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Throwing error by center fielder Mickey Moniak.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
