Rangers at Mets
Last play · Pete Alonso homers (34) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores.
Win probability
Mets100%
TEX 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Michael Helman scores. Josh Smith scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd. (inning 7) — -36% Rangers
10Pete Alonso homers (34) on a fly ball to right field. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto scores.2–5
7Joc Pederson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Michael Helman scores. Josh Smith scores. Wyatt Langford to 3rd.2–2
6Brandon Nimmo homers (23) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
5Rangers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Juan Soto grounds out to first baseman Rowdy Tellez. Francisco Alvarez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
