Royals at Phillies
Last play · Nick Castellanos grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Phillies0%
KC 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 2 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (28) on a fly ball to left field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 6) — -28% Royals
9Tyler Tolbert out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.10–3
9Bobby Witt Jr. homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field.9–3
8Bryson Stott homers (12) on a line drive to center field.8–3
7Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Carter Jensen scores. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.8–2
6Salvador Perez homers (28) on a fly ball to left field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores.6–2
6Vinnie Pasquantino doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.3–2
5Jac Caglianone homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Michael Massey scores.2–2
1J.T. Realmuto homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
