Astros at Braves
Last play · Jeremy Peña pops out to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
HOU 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 5 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Jurickson Profar scores. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd. (inning 5) — +25% Braves
7Sandy León homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Eli White scores.3–8
6Ozzie Albies doubles (22) on a fly ball to left fielder Zach Cole. Jurickson Profar scores.3–6
6Cam Smith homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.3–5
5Ha-Seong Kim singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.2–5
5Ozzie Albies singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Jurickson Profar scores. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd.2–4
4Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Meyers scores.2–2
2Sandy León reaches on a fielder's choice. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Mauricio Dubón.1–2
1Matt Olson homers (25) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
