Reds at Athletics
Last play · TJ Friedl lines out to center fielder Lawrence Butler.
Win probability
Athletics100%
CIN 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 4 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Athletics favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz homers (32) on a fly ball to left field. Jacob Wilson scores. (inning 5) — +30% Athletics
8Sal Stewart homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–7
7Brent Rooker homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Nick Kurtz scores.3–7
6Brett Harris doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Hays. Colby Thomas scores.3–5
5Nick Kurtz homers (32) on a fly ball to left field. Jacob Wilson scores.3–4
4Colby Thomas homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
4Jacob Wilson homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
2Will Benson homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Gavin Lux scores.3–0
1Noelvi Marte homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
