Cardinals at Brewers
Last play · Sal Frelick strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Brewers0%
STL 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 2 MIL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Danny Jansen homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +20% Brewers
5Danny Jansen homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
4Caleb Durbin homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
2Nathan Church singles on a ground ball to first baseman Jake Bauers, deflected by second baseman Brice Turang. Jordan Walker scores. José Fermín to 3rd.3–0
2José Fermín singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Nolan Gorman scores. Jordan Walker to 2nd.2–0
2Pedro Pagés out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Sal Frelick. Thomas Saggese scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
