D-backs at Twins
Last play · Matt Wallner flies out to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
Win probability
Twins0%
AZ 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 2 MIN
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · James McCann homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Blaze Alexander scores. Jordan Lawlar scores. (inning 4) — -38% D-backs
8Alek Thomas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Martin. Corbin Carroll scores.6–4
7Mickey Gasper homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
7Tim Tawa singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Alek Thomas scores.5–3
6Matt Wallner homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field.4–3
4James McCann homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Blaze Alexander scores. Jordan Lawlar scores.4–2
2Byron Buxton reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Jordan Lawlar. Mickey Gasper scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd. Byron Buxton to 2nd.1–2
2Edouard Julien singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Royce Lewis scores. Mickey Gasper to 3rd.1–1
2James McCann singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Alek Thomas scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
