Rockies at Padres
COL6–
SD9Last play · Ezequiel Tovar strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 7 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+240 / -300
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jackson Merrill scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd. (inning 1) — +16% Padres
8Gavin Sheets hits a ground-rule double (28) on a fly ball to right-center field. Mason McCoy scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.6–9
7Mickey Moniak singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Ezequiel Tovar scores.6–7
7Ezequiel Tovar doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Braxton Fulford scores.5–7
6Mickey Moniak homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Tyler Freeman scores. Ezequiel Tovar scores.4–7
4Mickey Moniak homers (20) on a fly ball to right field.1–7
3Freddy Fermin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Jake Cronenworth scores. Jose Iglesias to 2nd.0–7
2Jackson Merrill homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Mason McCoy scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.0–6
1Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Jackson Merrill scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.