Orioles at Blue Jays
Last play · Colton Cowser grounds out to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BAL 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ernie Clement doubles (30) on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Alejandro Kirk scores. Daulton Varsho scores. (inning 4) — +22% Blue Jays
7Joey Loperfido grounds into a force out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement out at 2nd. Joey Loperfido to 1st.2–11
7Ernie Clement singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jackson Holliday. Tyler Heineman scores. Daulton Varsho to 3rd.2–10
7Alejandro Kirk singles on a fly ball to second baseman Jackson Holliday, deflected by right fielder Dylan Beavers. Addison Barger scores.2–9
7Addison Barger doubles (30) on a fly ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.2–8
7Colton Cowser homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
6Joey Loperfido doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ernie Clement scores.1–5
5George Springer homers (29) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
4Ernie Clement doubles (30) on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Alejandro Kirk scores. Daulton Varsho scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
