Rays at Cubs
Last play · Junior Caminero strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
TB 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 1 CHC
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Willi Castro scores. Matt Shaw scores. (inning 7) — +44% Cubs
7Nico Hoerner doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Willi Castro scores. Matt Shaw scores.3–4
6Ian Happ homers (22) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Josh Lowe singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Shota Imanaga. Brandon Lowe scores. Nick Fortes to 3rd.3–1
1Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Everson Pereira. Michael Busch scores.2–1
1Junior Caminero homers (44) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
1Yandy Díaz homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
