Rangers at Astros
Last play · Cody Freeman grounds into a force out, third baseman Carlos Correa to second baseman Mauricio Dubón. Ezequiel Duran out at 2nd.
Win probability
Astros100%
TEX 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 4 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Cole homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jeremy Peña scores. (inning 5) — +30% Astros
7Zach Cole singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Jeremy Peña scores. Zach Cole to 2nd.3–6
7Jeremy Peña doubles (29) on a line drive to center fielder Michael Helman. Jesús Sánchez scores.3–5
5Zach Cole homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jeremy Peña scores.3–4
5Josh Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach Cole. Dylan Moore scores.3–2
5Josh Jung homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Alejandro Osuna scores.2–2
1Carlos Correa singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Jack Leiter. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Jack Leiter.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
