Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Jared Triolo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 0 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (28) on a line drive to center field. (inning 3) — -14% Cubs
6Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
4Dansby Swanson doubles (23) on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.3–0
3Moisés Ballesteros flies out to center fielder Jack Suwinski.2–0
3Michael Busch homers (28) on a line drive to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
