Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
TOR 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 1 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Springer singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 11) — -26% Blue Jays
11George Springer singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ernie Clement scores.2–1
8Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ernie Clement scores.1–1
1Yandy Díaz doubles (28) on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Chandler Simpson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
