Braves at Nationals
ATL11–
WSH3Last play · Riley Adams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 5 – 1 WSH
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-165 / +140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Marcell Ozuna scores. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 5) — -29% Braves
9Drake Baldwin homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Ozzie Albies scores.11–3
9Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.9–3
8James Wood grounds into a double play, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to first baseman Matt Olson. Robert Hassell III scores. CJ Abrams out at 2nd. James Wood out at 1st.8–3
8CJ Abrams singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Riley Adams scores. Robert Hassell III to 3rd.8–2
7Drake Baldwin singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder James Wood. Jurickson Profar scores. Matt Olson to 3rd. Ha-Seong Kim to 2nd.8–1
7Matt Olson doubles (38) on a ground ball to left fielder James Wood. Nacho Alvarez Jr. scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd.7–1
6Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Ha-Seong Kim scores.6–1
5Matt Olson homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. Marcell Ozuna scores. Michael Harris II scores.5–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.