Yankees at Twins
Last play · Paul Goldschmidt grounds out softly, pitcher Pierson Ohl to first baseman Edouard Julien.
Win probability
Twins100%
NYY 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-190 / +160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — +17% Twins
7Luke Keaschall singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham, deflected by pitcher Camilo Doval. Austin Martin scores.0–7
7Austin Martin doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Brooks Lee scores. Edouard Julien scores. Byron Buxton scores.0–6
7Brooks Lee doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Aaron Judge. Trevor Larnach scores.0–3
5Brooks Lee homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
3Austin Martin grounds into a force out, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jhonny Pereda scores. Edouard Julien out at 2nd. Austin Martin to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
