Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Iván Herrera grounds into a force out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to second baseman Matt McLain. Brendan Donovan out at 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CIN 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 1 STL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain hits a ground-rule double (17) on a line drive to right field. Tyler Stephenson scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 7) — -41% Reds
9Tyler Stephenson doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Noelvi Marte scores. Austin Hays scores. Sal Stewart scores.11–6
9Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to third baseman Nolan Arenado, deflected by pitcher Kyle Leahy. TJ Friedl scores. Noelvi Marte to 3rd. Austin Hays to 2nd.8–6
8Will Benson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Sal Stewart scores.7–6
7Iván Herrera singles on a line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. Thomas Saggese scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd.6–6
7Brendan Donovan singles on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Nolan Arenado scores. Thomas Saggese to 2nd.6–5
7TJ Friedl singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Matt McLain scores.6–4
7Matt McLain hits a ground-rule double (17) on a line drive to right field. Tyler Stephenson scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.5–4
6Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Hays. Alec Burleson scores.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
