Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Nick Gonzales strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 1 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (29) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — -10% Cubs
5Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Alexander Canario. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd.4–1
2Ian Happ out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Michael Busch scores.3–1
1Oneil Cruz triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Willi Castro. Spencer Horwitz scores.2–1
1Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jack Suwinski. Ian Happ scores. Moisés Ballesteros to 2nd.2–0
1Michael Busch homers (29) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
