Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Jake Mangum strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
TOR 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 6 – 3 TB
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Brandon Lowe homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 3) — +29% Rays
9Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Chandler Simpson scores.6–5
8Tristan Gray singles on a ground ball to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Josh Lowe scores. Tristan Gray to 2nd.6–4
5Joey Loperfido homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.6–3
4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Nathan Lukes homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Brandon Lowe homers (29) on a fly ball to right center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores.4–3
2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Andrés Giménez scores. George Springer to 3rd.4–0
2George Springer singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Davis Schneider scores. Ernie Clement scores. Andrés Giménez to 2nd.3–0
1Addison Barger singles on a fly ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. George Springer scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
