Padres at Mets
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn flies out to center fielder Cedric Mullins.
Win probability
Mets100%
SD 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 8 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeff McNeil doubles (19) on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Pete Alonso scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. (inning 1) — +16% Mets
8Freddy Fermin homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–8
4Cedric Mullins homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.2–8
3Jake Cronenworth homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.2–7
2Pete Alonso homers (35) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
2Francisco Lindor homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
2Jackson Merrill homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.1–5
1Brett Baty homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Jeff McNeil scores.0–5
1Jeff McNeil doubles (19) on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Pete Alonso scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
