Mariners at Royals
Last play · Jac Caglianone grounds out, catcher Cal Raleigh to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Royals0%
SEA 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 10 – 1 KC
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez doubles (31) on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores. (inning 1) — -21% Mariners
9Dominic Canzone homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Leo Rivas scores.12–5
8Mike Yastrzemski out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Carter Jensen scores.10–5
8Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to shortstop J.P. Crawford, deflected by second baseman Jorge Polanco. Jonathan India scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.10–4
6Carter Jensen homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jonathan India scores.10–3
5Dominic Canzone homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.10–1
4Carter Jensen homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.9–1
4Cal Raleigh homers (56) on a fly ball to center field. Randy Arozarena scores.9–0
3Victor Robles triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Dominic Canzone scores.7–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
