Rangers at Astros
Last play · Kyle Higashioka strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
TEX 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger. Jeremy Peña scores. (inning 3) — +12% Astros
8Adolis García singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Josh Jung scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd.5–6
8Josh Jung doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder Zach Cole. Kyle Higashioka scores.4–6
8Jonah Heim homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Rowdy Tellez scores.3–6
5Cody Freeman homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.1–6
4Jose Altuve singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Jesús Sánchez scores. Jeremy Peña to 2nd.0–6
4Jesús Sánchez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Alejandro Osuna. Victor Caratini scores. Yainer Diaz scores.0–5
4Yainer Diaz doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Jake Meyers scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.0–3
3Christian Walker grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger. Jeremy Peña scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
