Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Sal Stewart grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CIN 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Thomas Saggese homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Alec Burleson scores. (inning 3) — +17% Cardinals
3Thomas Saggese homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Alec Burleson scores.0–3
1Nolan Arenado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Brendan Donovan scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
