Phillies at Dodgers
Last play · Shohei Ohtani grounds out sharply, pitcher Jhoan Duran to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
PHI 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 4 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Marchán homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Weston Wilson scores. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 9) — -47% Phillies
9Rafael Marchán homers (2) on a line drive to right field. Weston Wilson scores. Bryson Stott scores.9–6
8Alex Call out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Teoscar Hernández scores.6–6
8Shohei Ohtani homers (50) on a fly ball to right field.6–5
6Max Kepler homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.6–4
6Brandon Marsh homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper scores.5–4
6Bryce Harper doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Teoscar Hernández. Rafael Marchán scores. Harrison Bader scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.2–4
4Enrique Hernández out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Tommy Edman scores.0–4
2Enrique Hernández homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Andy Pages scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
