Padres at Dodgers
Last play · Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
SD 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 7 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Dodgers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Shohei Ohtani homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Will Smith scores. Gavin Lux scores. (inning 2) — +35% Dodgers
5Tommy Edman grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Donovan Solano. Will Smith scores. Gavin Lux out at 2nd. Tommy Edman out at 1st.5–7
4Teoscar Hernández singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. , deflected by center fielder Jackson Merrill. Shohei Ohtani scores. Mookie Betts scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.5–6
4Adrian Morejon intentionally walks Mookie Betts.5–4
3Xander Bogaerts doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill scores.5–3
2Shohei Ohtani homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Will Smith scores. Gavin Lux scores.3–3
1Manny Machado homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–0
1Jurickson Profar grounds out, second baseman Gavin Lux to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
