Padres at D-backs
Last play · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs0%
SD 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 7 – 1 AZ
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Jurickson Profar scores. (inning 4) — -26% Padres
5Eugenio Suárez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Joc Pederson scores.7–1
5Manny Machado homers (5) on a line drive to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.7–0
5Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Tyler Wade scores.5–0
4Jackson Merrill doubles (4) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Pavin Smith. Manny Machado scores.4–0
4Jake Cronenworth homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
4Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Jurickson Profar scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








