Twins at D-backs
Last play · Jake McCarthy grounds out, shortstop Carlos Correa to first baseman Carlos Santana.
Win probability
D-backs0%
MIN 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 8 – 1 AZ
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
D-backs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Miranda doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Carlos Correa scores. Carlos Santana scores. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 2) — -33% Twins
6Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Max Kepler. Christian Walker scores.8–3
5Willi Castro homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Miranda scores.8–1
4Lourdes Gurriel Jr. triples (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Joc Pederson scores.6–1
4Carlos Correa doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Corbin Carroll. Trevor Larnach scores.6–0
4Trevor Larnach doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Jake McCarthy. Willi Castro scores.5–0
3Byron Buxton out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Corbin Carroll. Carlos Correa scores.4–0
2Jose Miranda doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Carlos Correa scores. Carlos Santana scores. Byron Buxton scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














