Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Kyle Schwarber lines out sharply to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Win probability
D-backs100%
PHI 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 41.1% · hold 5.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +17% D-backs
7Corbin Carroll homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.1–11
7Jake McCarthy homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores.1–8
7Josh Bell doubles (19) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Kevin Newman scores. Joc Pederson scores.1–6
5Jake McCarthy homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores.1–4
5Bryce Harper grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Josh Bell. Kyle Schwarber scores. Trea Turner to 3rd.1–2
2Corbin Carroll grounds into a force out, second baseman Bryson Stott to shortstop Trea Turner. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Jose Herrera out at 2nd. Corbin Carroll to 1st. Fielding error by first baseman Bryce Harper.0–2
1Ketel Marte homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
