Mets at D-backs
Last play · Jesse Winker grounds out, second baseman Kevin Newman to first baseman Pavin Smith.
Win probability
D-backs100%
NYM 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 4 AZ
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
D-backs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (17) to right center field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Pavin Smith scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 8) — +69% D-backs
8Corbin Carroll hits a grand slam (17) to right center field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Pavin Smith scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.5–8
6Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Starling Marte scores.5–4
5Harrison Bader homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Francisco Alvarez scores.4–4
5Francisco Alvarez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. J.D. Martinez scores.2–4
5J.D. Martinez doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo scores.1–4
4Corbin Carroll homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
3Joc Pederson homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Jake McCarthy scores.0–3
2Luis Guillorme singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. scores. Adrian Del Castillo to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
