Rays at Braves
Last play · Brandon Lowe flies out to left fielder Adam Duvall.
Win probability
Braves100%
TB 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 5 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Braves favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarred Kelenic homers (5) on a line drive to right center field. Sean Murphy scores. (inning 5) — +30% Braves
9Randy Arozarena homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.2–9
8Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Richie Palacios. Ramón Laureano scores.1–9
7Austin Riley homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Marcell Ozuna scores. Matt Olson scores.1–8
5Matt Olson homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
5Marcell Ozuna homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Ozzie Albies scores.1–4
5Jarred Kelenic homers (5) on a line drive to right center field. Sean Murphy scores.1–2
1Josh Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarred Kelenic. Brandon Lowe scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














