Phillies at Braves
Last play · Rafael Marchán called out on strikes.
Win probability
Braves100%
PHI 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 5 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcell Ozuna homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 1) — +16% Braves
5Ozzie Albies homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Jarred Kelenic scores.1–5
3Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Eli White. Johan Rojas scores. Bryson Stott to 2nd.1–3
1Marcell Ozuna homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Ozzie Albies scores.0–3
1Ozzie Albies singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Jarred Kelenic scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














