Marlins at Braves
Last play · Nick Fortes grounds out softly, second baseman Whit Merrifield to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIA 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Marcell Ozuna scores. (inning 1) — +16% Braves
7Jake Burger singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jarred Kelenic. David Hensley scores. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.2–4
5Nick Fortes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarred Kelenic. Forrest Wall scores.1–4
3Orlando Arcia homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
1Matt Olson homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Marcell Ozuna scores.0–3
1Austin Riley homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
