Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Jahmai Jones strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
NYY 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 7 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Mateo homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 4) — +19% Orioles
6Gleyber Torres homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–7
5Jorge Mateo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Jordan Westburg scores.1–7
5Jordan Westburg triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Trent Grisham. Ryan Mountcastle scores. Anthony Santander scores.1–6
5Ryan Mountcastle singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Adley Rutschman scores.1–4
4Ryan McKenna homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Jorge Mateo homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Ryan Mountcastle homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
3Anthony Rizzo singles on a line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Anthony Volpe scores. Anthony Rizzo to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








