Blue Jays at Orioles
Last play · Cedric Mullins grounds out, second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Orioles0%
TOR 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Orioles favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daulton Varsho grounds out, second baseman Jorge Mateo to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Cavan Biggio scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd. (inning 10) — -26% Blue Jays
10Daulton Varsho grounds out, second baseman Jorge Mateo to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Cavan Biggio scores. Ernie Clement to 2nd.3–2
8Daulton Varsho homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
6Adley Rutschman homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
6Daniel Vogelbach singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.1–1
4Adley Rutschman homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








