Braves at Orioles
Last play · Ozzie Albies strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
ATL 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 3 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Orioles favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Mateo homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Anthony Santander scores. Austin Hays scores. (inning 2) — +26% Orioles
6Austin Hays singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarred Kelenic. Ryan Mountcastle scores. Anthony Santander to 3rd. Austin Hays to 2nd. Fielding error by left fielder Jarred Kelenic.0–4
2Jorge Mateo homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Anthony Santander scores. Austin Hays scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














