Guardians at Orioles
Last play · Jhonkensy Noel strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
CLE 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 2 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -240
Orioles favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — +30% Orioles
8Ryan O'Hearn homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
7Cedric Mullins homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
5Gunnar Henderson homers (26) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
5Gabriel Arias homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
2Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyler Freeman. Jorge Mateo scores.1–1
2Jhonkensy Noel homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














