Padres at Orioles
Last play · Anthony Santander pops out to first baseman Jake Cronenworth in foul territory.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SD 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 2 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
Orioles favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Tyler Wade scores. (inning 9) — -41% Padres
9Jurickson Profar homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Tyler Wade scores.6–4
8Ryan Mountcastle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder David Peralta. Ryan O'Hearn scores.4–4
8Anthony Santander homers (29) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
6Jackson Merrill doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Heston Kjerstad. Xander Bogaerts scores.4–2
6Xander Bogaerts doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder Heston Kjerstad. Manny Machado scores.3–2
6Jurickson Profar homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field. Luis Arraez scores.2–2
4Ryan Mountcastle grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Xander Bogaerts. Jordan Westburg scores. Heston Kjerstad out at 2nd. Ryan Mountcastle to 1st.0–2
2Jordan Westburg homers (17) on a line drive to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














