Padres at Orioles
Last play · Jake Cronenworth grounds out, second baseman Jordan Westburg to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle.
Win probability
Orioles100%
SD 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 6 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Orioles favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Manny Machado scores. (inning 6) — -22% Padres
9Padres challenged (slide interference), call on the field was overturned: Jurickson Profar grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. David Peralta scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd. Tyler Wade out at 2nd. Jurickson Profar to 1st.6–8
8Ryan Mountcastle singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Anthony Santander scores. Adley Rutschman scores.5–8
6Xander Bogaerts homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Manny Machado scores.5–6
5Luis Arraez grounds into a double play, second baseman Connor Norby to shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Kyle Higashioka out at 2nd. Luis Arraez out at 1st.3–6
5Kyle Higashioka singles on a line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. David Peralta scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.2–6
5Ha-Seong Kim doubles (14) on a fly ball to left fielder Colton Cowser. Jackson Merrill scores. David Peralta to 3rd.1–6
3Cedric Mullins doubles (12) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Ryan Mountcastle scores.0–6
3Ryan Mountcastle singles on a line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Anthony Santander scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














