Padres at Orioles
Last play · Ramón Urías grounds out, pitcher Logan Gillaspie to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Orioles0%
SD 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 0 BAL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Orioles favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Higashioka reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Ramón Urías. Jackson Merrill scores. David Peralta scores. (inning 2) — -25% Padres
9Cedric Mullins homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Colton Cowser scores.9–4
9Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.9–2
7Cedric Mullins doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to right fielder David Peralta. Anthony Santander scores. Colton Cowser scores.8–2
7Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Anthony Santander. Xander Bogaerts scores.8–0
7Manny Machado homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.7–0
4Jurickson Profar grounds into a force out, second baseman Connor Norby to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Kyle Higashioka scores. Luis Arraez out at 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Gunnar Henderson.4–0
3Xander Bogaerts doubles (8) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Colton Cowser. Jurickson Profar scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.3–0
2Kyle Higashioka reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Ramón Urías. Jackson Merrill scores. David Peralta scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














