Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Rafael Devers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
BOS 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 5) — +22% Orioles
9Rob Refsnyder homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–4
8Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Colton Cowser. Triston Casas scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd.1–4
6Gunnar Henderson homers (33) on a fly ball to right center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores.0–4
6Ryan O'Hearn grounds into a force out, first baseman Triston Casas to shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela. Ramón Urías scores. Colton Cowser out at 2nd. Ryan O'Hearn to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela.0–2
5Adley Rutschman homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
