Giants at Red Sox
Last play · Thairo Estrada grounds into a double play, shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela to second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to first baseman Dominic Smith. Matt Chapman out at 2nd. Thairo Estrada out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
SF 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Red Sox favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tom Murphy homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 3) — -18% Giants
7Connor Wong doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Wilyer Abreu scores.2–6
5Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Rob Refsnyder scores. Connor Wong to 2nd.2–5
4Jarren Duran triples (4) on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Enmanuel Valdez scores.2–4
4Enmanuel Valdez doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Michael Conforto. Connor Wong scores.2–3
4Mike Yastrzemski singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Rafael Devers. Michael Conforto scores. Thairo Estrada to 3rd.2–2
3Rob Refsnyder grounds out, shortstop Nick Ahmed to first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. Jarren Duran scores.1–2
3Rafael Devers doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Michael Conforto. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.1–1
3Tom Murphy homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








