Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Romy Gonzalez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Connor Wong scores. Tyler O'Neill to 2nd.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rob Refsnyder grounds out, pitcher Manuel Rodríguez to first baseman Yandy Díaz. David Hamilton scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd. (inning 11) — +41% Red Sox
12Romy Gonzalez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Connor Wong scores. Tyler O'Neill to 2nd.4–5
11Rob Refsnyder grounds out, pitcher Manuel Rodríguez to first baseman Yandy Díaz. David Hamilton scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd.4–4
11Isaac Paredes reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela. Randy Arozarena scores. Josh Lowe to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.4–3
6Isaac Paredes singles on a fly ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Josh Lowe scores.3–3
6Randy Arozarena homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
5Ceddanne Rafaela homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
4Dominic Smith doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Rafael Devers scores. Tyler O'Neill scores.1–2
1Josh Lowe homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








